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Brian
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Brian
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jackjack
Posts:159
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| 07/21/2008 8:50 PM |
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| Yeah, but the Grande is taking longer to slide than I would like. I would really like to get into this building, but the prices are not falling fast enough. I wonder what PPSF will turn out to be when the dust settles? |
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Brian
Posts:2608
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| 07/21/2008 10:25 PM |
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Posted By jackjack on 07/21/2008 8:50 PM
Yeah, but the Grande is taking longer to slide than I would like. I would really like to get into this building, but the prices are not falling fast enough. I wonder what PPSF will turn out to be when the dust settles?
Take your time jackjack. You can get a rental deal at the Grande. Enjoy living in the building and buy when there's blood on the streets.
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Brian
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Goingup?
Posts:167
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| 08/12/2008 6:31 PM |
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"No, you're missing it. My point is education. Attitudes change slowly. There is still a lot of mis-information out there. Prices are still dangerously too high. The REIC advertisers are out there spewing "good time to buy" propoganda. Little old me is over here typing away at my keyboard and pointing out facts and data. Data will save you. Propoganda will kill you."
One person's propaganda is another's data. Stats always can be manipulated anyway you want to make a point. The key to making money is to keep an open mind and not run with the herd. Clearly oil was in a bubble, with the rest of commodities, yet the beloved web site that starts with a "P" stated the exact opposite. He sees the real estate bubble clearly, after the fact, and his timing on the oil bubble will be similar.
But prices for downtown condos are NOT too high, or developers would still be building them. The fact they are selling well below current construction costs is a clear indicator prices are not out of line on the upside. Bosa will hold the line on the remaining Electra units as he did with his Grande units.
Grande prices are currently being hit because of the multiple forclosures in the building. This won't last long. With the Fed throwing money at the real estate market this turn around will happen faster than most.
The next 4 years should be very interesting for real estate and downtown in particular.
But developers will come back when prices rise in the 40% range this time, but looking forward say 20 years, where will prices go downtown when all the land is built out?
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Brian
Posts:2608
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| 08/12/2008 7:52 PM |
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>>>> This won't last long. With the Fed throwing money at the real estate market this turn around will happen faster than most.
The bailout won't help the market. It's a backstop to help the financial firms but not housing prices.
The bailout certain won't help expensive Downtown SD real estate.
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Bailout Thread
Posted by rkf619
07/25/2008
According to today's NY Times there are some interesting details about the housing bailout bill:
1) Eligibility for home owners:
a) Only mortgages issued after 1/1/08
b) Must be primary residence
c) Income verification required
d) As of 3/1/08 your monthly housing payment (principal, interest, taxes and insurance) must be 31% or more of your monthly household income
e) Restructured terms negotiated with banks, are voluntary by banks and do not have to be better terms than old loan
f) No home equity loan(s) allowed for following five years
g) Homeowner must pay annual fee of 1.5% of remaining mortgage balance
h) Homeowner must remit at least 50% of any gain on sale of house to the government and as much at 100% of gain if sold within five years
i) Loan amount limited to 90% or less of appraised value
2) New Home Buyer tax credit
a) If primary residence, new homebuyer eligible for $7,500 tax credit or 10% of purchase price whichever is lower
b) Tax credit amount phased out for incomes over $75 K for singles and $150 K for couples filing jointly; $0 tax credit for incomes over $90 K and $170K respectively
c) Tax credit must be repaid to government over 15 years (So this credit is really an interest free loan)
d) Credit is retroactive to homes purchased after 4/9/08
Huge questions remain--
1) Is the new government guarantied loan limited to a certain dollar amount?
2) Is there an income limit to qualify for loans or could someone making $500,000 a year be eligible?
3) How do we know that 90% of the appraised value doesn't end up to be 120% of the reappraised in two years if the market continues to sink? Would you be eligible to restructure all over again?
As far as I am concerned, the whole concept of the bill stinks! Furthermore, the fine print insures that only the most desperate lenders and owners will participate - ie the worst of worst loans for taxpayers to guaranty.
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Goingup?
Posts:167
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| 08/12/2008 9:04 PM |
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I agree the bill stinks, along with the coming bail out of Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. But the point is, that's what the gov is going to do (they want housing prices to stabilize at any cost at this point).
So you either fight the Fed, or run with them.
As for expensive downtown real estate: a rising tide raises all boats, even big Yachts.
You fight, I'll run. |
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hiswelshness
Posts:66
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| 08/13/2008 3:01 AM |
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| I think the point is that this bail-out stops the banks and Fannie and Freddie from total collapse over their existing grossly overvalued mortgage inventory. However, noone's jumping back in the lending pool anytime soon, so where does the money come from that's going to refloat the sinking housing market? Average Joe Public is gonna have a devil of a time financing anything in the near future. I agree with Brian that this creates a backstop for the banks. It doesn't create a new lending pool. It is still extremely unclear where that is going to magically magically come from. I am looking forward to a cash buyer free for all. If you have cash, take your pick this winter. You're the only one buying! |
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Brian
Posts:2608
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wilson
Posts:670
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| 08/13/2008 11:20 PM |
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| Any guesses at what unit #2004 wil close at? I'm interested in these good-sized 1 bedrooms. |
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Brian
Posts:2608
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Brian
Posts:2608
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Brian
Posts:2608
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| 08/18/2008 10:50 AM |
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Reduced to $999,000
Purchased 05/15/2006 for $1,100,000
More than 2 years of carrying costs to lose it all.
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Brian
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Brian
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Brian
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SJdiego
Posts:47
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| 08/21/2008 4:28 PM |
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I honestly don't understand the point of most of these chains where you respond to your own posts about "cracks" at wherever. For example, how do you define #2205 to be a "crack"? The simple fact that it's listed below its last sales price? That's not exactly news these days.
I think it's safe to say that pretty much all units in this building that are on the market now, but purchased in 2005, 2006, or 2007 should be listed below the last purchase price. If they aren't, they should be.
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Brian
Posts:2608
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| 08/21/2008 5:31 PM |
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SJdiego, I started these threads a while back, for fun, because some shills said that I was "on crack" for thinking that sellers at the "best addresses" in Downtown SD, which is itself "the best Downtown in the world" would sell below purchase price.
The shills argued that these were solid buyers who are holding for the long term.
1) People will never sell at a loss because everyone wants to live here. Check.
2) The developer prices are "the floor". Check.
3) Foreclosures are only for the lowly buildings such as Acqua Vista. Check.
4) Prices at the "top" buildings are increasing because we have foreign millionaires with suitcases of cash flying in to save the market. Check.
5) This is the bottom and the opportunity to buy. Check.
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Brian
Posts:2608
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| 08/21/2008 5:36 PM |
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Posted By SJdiego on 08/21/2008 4:28 PM
I think it's safe to say that pretty much all units in this building that are on the market now, but purchased in 2005, 2006, or 2007 should be listed below the last purchase price. If they aren't, they should be.
I agree with you.
I'm now ready to move-on. I'll post the more salient drops of value below original "lifetime-opportunity" developer prices and the foreclosures of "the rich who are holding for the long term."
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