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Brian
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| 08/29/2008 10:06 AM |
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#2805 is a good one to watch.
It's a "premium" unit, high up in the building, that will make new comps when it changes ownership.
Of course, the unit is owned by a Realtor who "bought for the long-term."
1205_Pacific_Hwy_2805_San_Diego_CA_92101
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wilson
Posts:670
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| 08/29/2008 1:54 PM |
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Unit 2805 is listed at $225k above the original developer price (27% increase) and also above anothe later sale price.
No evidence of any cracks here yet.
I guess posting these examples is supposed to be "evidence" of something, but not a crack in price.
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Brian
Posts:2614
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| 08/29/2008 2:20 PM |
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Wilson, you know well that crack is a fun term and comes from someone who claimed that I was on crack for saying that "premier" properties would lose value.
Be a little imaginative here. A crack price is also a price that nobody who isn't on crack would pay.
Consider this thread "The Grande Tracker" if you prefer.
#2805 is a good one to track from listing to final change of ownership. That's why I posted it. |
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Brian
Posts:2614
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Brian
Posts:2614
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Brian
Posts:2614
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Brian
Posts:2614
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| 10/01/2008 10:02 AM |
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I said before that when people list houses just to get their money back... there can be only 1 likely reason:
They are out of wherewithal and won't last long. They eventually to go short sale or foreclosure (or they get real lucky and find a knife catcher).
If they have real staying power, they usually withdraw the listing but would never drop the price below purchase price.
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Brian
Posts:2614
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wilson
Posts:670
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| 10/03/2008 8:00 PM |
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| New listing Unit #3404 at just under developer original price. Same listing price $499k as #2204. Poor quality photos of #3404 make the place look bland. You would think some decent photos would be a good idea. |
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twocents
Posts:92
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| 10/04/2008 9:53 AM |
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| Guys, I don't go dtown that often, so I have a question. Is there a third tower nearing completion? If so was it sold pre-construction or will it create new pricing pressure on the existing towers? Am I on crack to think there is an outside shot that units such as 2204 may go below 400K before this is all said and done? From the pictures of some of the other units for sale the place is gorgeous and could help me swallow the thought of 700 dolla HOAs... |
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twocents
Posts:92
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| 10/04/2008 10:00 AM |
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| I just saw the one listed on the 5th floor for 380K, but I wouldn't be able to buy below the 10th fl I think b/c I would forever be cursed with altitude envy. I couldn't buy there w/o a view, and w/o being high enough to minimize the train and traffic noise |
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wilson
Posts:670
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| 10/04/2008 10:11 AM |
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twocents,
i could be your competitor. 400k for 1 bed would be a significant price point for floor level above 10. my guess is they will get near that number but not that low. I also couldn't see buying a lower unit in a tower and subsidize the views of my neighbors above. |
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twocents
Posts:92
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| 10/05/2008 7:58 AM |
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| Ok Wilson, I'll let you have the first one! :P No sense getting in a bidding war. |
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Brian
Posts:2614
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| 10/05/2008 11:40 AM |
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Posted By twocents on 10/05/2008 7:58 AM
Ok Wilson, I'll let you have the first one! :P No sense getting in a bidding war.
That's pretty smart. Bayside and Sapphire are coming so there'll be plenty of choices.
At this point, start with a clean slate and forget what those places sold for at the peak. Those prices are irrelevant.
Look at fundamentals. How many buyers who are not flippers do you think can afford $800 in HOA + $400 Property taxes? That equals about $1200 in carrying costs before the mortgage. Include utilities, cable, Internet and you're looking very high fixed costs for a 1 bedroom.
The only reason I focus on peak prices is to show that yes, prices can drop 50%. Time will tell.....
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wilson
Posts:670
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| 10/05/2008 7:58 PM |
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If prices at the Grande fall 50% from developer prices, I should be able to buy a 1-bedroom above 15th floor for $225k-$250k. About a 50% drop from present prices.
I'm not holding my breath. |
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wilson
Posts:670
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| 10/05/2008 8:42 PM |
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Brian,
I did a little more checking. The highset price I was able to find on a Grande 1-bedroom above the 15th floor was $590k for unit #2004 in 1/2006. So my target will be $295k. I'll buy you that fancy dinner after I close at that price (if it ever happens). |
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wilson
Posts:670
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| 10/05/2008 8:59 PM |
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| For perspective, current 1-bedroom listings and past closings have $499k as lowest price. That is a maximum 15.5% decline to date. If there is a depression, there may be a 50% drop in price to $295k. All I need is another additional $200k price decline to get there. |
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Goingup?
Posts:167
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| 10/05/2008 10:37 PM |
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Saphire and Bayside will little effect on The Grande's prices. Neither builiding is anything like Electra, which was bought up mainly by flippers. All the future owners of those buildings are buying to live there, and the developer's pockets are deep enough to hold out for years before caving in on prices on the remaining units.
I'm still in shock there were over 80 pendings the last 30 days downtown (last year it was averaging around 30). It will be very interesting to see if this continues very long. 6 months of that type of action and your going to see prices start to jump again.
The economy will drive real estate prices for the next 12 months in San Diego. If it starts to recover prices will stablize in a hurry. If not, well, one more year of pain.
The big move for downtown in prices will be between 2010 and 2014. By 2010 all the inventory downtown will be gone and with prices below new construction costs new buildings won't sprout up until prices are at least 40% higher than the current range. It will also take about 4 years to get the building process started and completed.
The only way to coax out new inventory in the meantime is for prices to go up.
Should be a fun 4 year ride.
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Brian
Posts:2614
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| 10/06/2008 2:03 PM |
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Posted By wilson on 10/05/2008 8:42 PM
I'll buy you that fancy dinner after I close at that price (if it ever happens).
Yeah, if that happens, I'd be more than happy to join you for dinner and discuss prices. :) I believe that we see the market in much the same way. You're the nice guy who takes the market with a wait and see approach. I just call a spade a spade.
Perhaps, we could invite Goingup to join as well. ;)
Goingup, prices won't jump 40% without the easy money of the last few years. It wasn't the low interest rates. It was the lack careful underwriting that drove the market.
This is much bigger than Downtown San Diego. It's 30 years of leveraging coming home to roost.
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Brian
Posts:2614
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| 10/06/2008 2:19 PM |
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Didn't I say that it's only a matter of time until sellers run out of staying power.
In the Spring, #3701 looked like a solid seller sticking to his guns. What about now? Can you foresee a short sale then a foreclosure?
1199_Pacific_Hwy_3701_San_Diego_CA_92101 |
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