cabbie
Posts:58
 |
| 07/31/2008 2:24 PM |
 Alert
|
| What was the average price of a home in San Diego in 1999? I seem to recall a figure of about $175K in 1997, but I could be way off......This may also have been based on the fact that a great aunt resided in Lemon Grove and was giving very local numbers at the time..... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eugene
Posts:262
|
| 07/31/2008 2:48 PM |
Alert
|
| City median was in low 200's. Highly desirable areas went for 400-500k (Carlsbad, Carmel Valley). |
|
|
|
|
78TTop
Posts:88
|
| 07/31/2008 3:23 PM |
Alert
|
| cabbie... so are you waiting for 1999 prices to jump in? |
|
|
|
|
MWtoSD
Posts:18
|
| 07/31/2008 8:29 PM |
Alert
|
Here are some graphs that I was able to locate - just wanting to give back for all the valuable info I have been reading. I do not know how accurate, but the data seems reasonable. The data does with Eugene's statement above.
it even has a downloadable excel spreadsheet with the data!
, from this page
|
|
|
|
|
MWtoSD
Posts:18
|
| 07/31/2008 8:32 PM |
Alert
|
opps! i used < & > and the links did not stay when the last message was posted! I thought that made them hyperinked clickable.
Here are some graphs that I was able to locate - just wanting to give back for all the valuable info I have been reading. I do not know how accurate, but the data seems reasonable. The data does with Eugene's statement above.
http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/san_diego.html it even has a downloadable excel spreadsheet with the data!
http://home.znet.com/schester/fallbrook/home_prices/san_diego_county_home_prices.gif is the graph, here is the rest of the article http://home.znet.com/schester/fallbrook/home_prices/index.html
|
|
|
|
|
cabbie
Posts:58
|
| 08/01/2008 8:42 AM |
Alert
|
No I'm not waiting for prices of 1999 to shop.....but I like to have a frame of reference on housing prices, I guess it was something people forgot about 5 years ago.....growth that is steady and stable makes me feel more confident in agreeing to a mortgage...
Besides, not being from California, I have to be skeptical and cautious, some of the building practices here are awful!! Are many of these houses really worth $450K?? Can you imagine them in a New England winter??
|
|
|
|
|
Brian
Posts:2242
|
| 08/01/2008 9:36 AM |
Alert
|
cabbie, it makes sense to have a frame of reference. It gives you a perspective by which to gauge values.
I believe that we again see Year 2000 level prices.
|
|
|
|
|
delmarbus
Posts:4
|
| 08/01/2008 10:19 AM |
Alert
|
| Brian, I see that you continually predict housing prices will reach year 2000 levels. I'm not debating you on it, but do you think that applies to La Jolla and Mission Hills, or just downtown condos? |
|
|
|
|
78TTop
Posts:88
|
| 08/01/2008 10:27 AM |
Alert
|
| cabbie... we don't have New England-style winters here in San Diego. So don't expect our homes to be built like a home in New England. A better comparison is the builder. Some San Diego homebuilders build good homes. Some don't. But don't look for winterized plumbing, mountains of insulation, or snow-grade windows & roofs. You won't find them here. |
|
|
|
|
tpc
Posts:504
|
| 08/01/2008 10:48 AM |
Alert
|
| Cabbie-seriously, I think Brian has it right. Logically, prices should go to 2001/2002 levels. But, by the time this debacle is over, real estate will be one of the most hated investments (wall street has seen to that) that it will overshoot rational levels to irrational levels ie. 2000 prices. I, myself, have been in love with real estate since my first job in the mtge dept of Prudential Insurance in 1963. Currently, I am trying to liquidate my last r.e. holding-my house. Will be buying stock for the first time in 30 years(GE, Oracle). Big amounts of stock. Will dip my toe back into r.e. in 3-5 years (G-d willing) with the purchase of a nice condo and maybe 1 or 2 rental condos. By then the hate levels for real estate will be so high that the numbers will pencil out. Have seen this movie before and am now ready to play the probabilities as I see them. |
|
|
|
|
Brian
Posts:2242
|
| 08/01/2008 10:49 AM |
Alert
|
delmarbus, I'm predicting Year 2000 prices for San Diego as a region.
If prices in the nicer areas don't drop outright, they'll stagnate for years to be equivalent to a price drop.
If you look back a history, lower priced houses appreciated much more than higher priced houses, so, of course the more modest houses will drop more percentage wise. But that does not mean any area is immune.
http://piggington.com/return_to_2003_again_or_possibly_2002
|
|
|
|
|
ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
|
| 08/01/2008 11:41 AM |
Alert
|
| I don't think house price in SD will go down to 2000 level. In an area I monitor everyday for my friend who had made many offers for REOs, 99% REOs gone within 7 days if the list price is at 2003 level. There are usually 5~20 mutiple offers to one property with sold prices by 10k-30k higher than listing prices. Similar houses sold in June and July actually are at higher prices than that in March and April. I checked REO direct from the banks' web sites, not many REOs are there for the area and most of them have been listed and even some of them have been sold. Most houses with low listing price stucked in the market are short sales and most of them will finally go to foreclosure. . |
|
|
|
|
Just Someone
Posts:157
|
| 08/01/2008 11:52 AM |
Alert
|
ownhomeinSD
[quote] >Similar houses sold in June and July actually are at higher prices than that in March and April. [/quote]
Market cycle, so that's often a true statement. It's like saying that fuel oil prices are lower in the summer than in the winter. Year to year prices are what matters.
|
|
|
|
|
stella
Posts:360
|
| 08/02/2008 8:36 AM |
Alert
|
| I wouldn't focus on the year as much as the affordability numbers. 1999 is almost ten years ago, downtown for example is much different now. |
|
|
|
|
tpc
Posts:504
|
| 08/02/2008 11:22 AM |
Alert
|
| IMHO the spring, summer and possibly fall (pre nov.) is the last great selling opportunity before next years melt down. I think that unprecedented inventory levels will be met with a lack of qualified buyers. Also recently burned buyers and scared buyers-victimized by the media-will further drive down prices. Like I say IMHO. |
|
|
|
|
ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
|
| 08/02/2008 1:56 PM |
Alert
|
Posted By Just Someone on 08/01/2008 11:52 AM
ownhomeinSD
[quote] >Similar houses sold in June and July actually are at higher prices than that in March and April. [/quote]
Market cycle, so that's often a true statement. It's like saying that fuel oil prices are lower in the summer than in the winter. Year to year prices are what matters.
Yes, I agree year to year prices are what matters. But when you see that, you missed bottom already. I wouldn't say March and April house prices in the area is a stable bottom but it may indicates market trend towards stablility, at least in the area. Also, with so many multiple offers for properties for sale at 2003 price, how should the price goes down to 2001 leve?. If you read the numbers in this article (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080801/us_nm/california_housing_dc), you may know what I obsereved is not just the trend for one special area. My judgment is when the cost to own a house is clost to rent, the bottom is there or near. It is about 2003 level.
|
|
|
|
|
92101Resident
Posts:140
|
| 08/02/2008 4:46 PM |
Alert
|
Typically, the home prices double every 10 to 15 years due to simple inflation and slow but gradual appreciation (of course there are always exceptions). So despite being very bearish on the SD real estate I can't see the prices going back to 1999 levels (maybe they will go back to 1999 levels while factoring in the inflation rate to present). Now if the country goes in a deep recession due to the energy prices or some other conflict then all bets are off.
Lastly, finding drastic reductions in areas such as City Heights, Chula Vista, El Cajon or Spring Valley isn't really a true market test. Those are all glorified barios which only rose with the tide of loose money for unqualified buyers. |
|
|
|
|
NCgirl
Posts:206
|
| 08/02/2008 5:01 PM |
Alert
|
Posted By 92101Resident on 08/02/2008 4:46 PM
Lastly, finding drastic reductions in areas such as City Heights, Chula Vista, El Cajon or Spring Valley isn't really a true market test. Those are all glorified barios which only rose with the tide of loose money for unqualified buyers.
True dat.
|
|
|
|
|
jakob
Posts:487
|
| 08/02/2008 5:10 PM |
Alert
|
| I think 1999 with inflation is very reasonable, and likely. That's about 1.3x nominal 1999 prices. |
|
|
|
|
cabbie
Posts:58
|
| 08/26/2008 10:54 AM |
Alert
|
Question: "cabbie... so are you waiting for 1999 prices to jump in?"
Answer: "yes, 78TTop!!" Guess numbers ARE dropping--- WAY down....what "hot deals" are you selling right now anyway?? |
|
|
|
|