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rwsinmissionhills
Posts:355
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| 07/18/2008 11:50 AM |
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The fact that agriculture takes up 80% of the water in CA is not quite that huge of a secret. People have been grumbling about this and some of the huge wastes of water that it engenders for decades.
I think it might be wise to grow in CA what grows best and is most suited to growing in CA. Especially fruits like avocados, citrus, etc as well as products that will be consumed in the region.
Also locally growing produce that does well in small spaces is a practice I hope we see more of in the near future.
I am hearing louder rumbling about shifting more growing back to east of the Mississippi. Yes, we keep hearing about drought there, such as the drought Atlanta had last year. However, much of the problem east of the Mississippi isn't so much a lack of precipitation--it's a lack of a water management, storage and delivery systems. Some areas are nearly absent any kind of water infrastructure. There are still many, many agricultural areas east of the Mississippi that rely totally on rainfall. And I mean totally: Many farmers do not have any type of irrigation system and even a few weeks or a month of unusual dryness can ruin them for the season.
Agriculture started shifting West, not so much because of our weather, but because the west mastered massive water projects that could deliver water anywhere any time. California and AZ now ship produce that could be grown in the midwest, south or mid atlantic states back to the east coast. This does not make much sense to me. It is starting to make less sense to everyone else, too, so we might start seeing some shifts in agriculture.
And, I agree. Vive the farmer--every kind of farmer wherever you find him. |
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613867
Posts:62
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| 07/18/2008 11:51 AM |
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Big Trace-if you are interested in retiring and own serveral office buildings let me give you the key to retirement that I learned in some of the TIC seminars I attended. Lets start with a hypothetical that your 2 buildings are worth a combined $10m and that you have an $8m mtge covering both. Here are the steps. 1) Master lease your building for 2 years for an amount that will support a $14m valuation. 2) Get $14m appraisal so that you now have $6m in equity. 3) Sell half our your equity to people anxious to do a tax free exchange via a TIC (tenant in common) for $3M. 4) Use the extra $1m in sales proceeds to pay uncle sam, your attys, broker fees and the shortfall in rents for 2 years. 5) Treat the remaining $2M as a return of your original equity. Bottom line. You will continue to own a 50% interest in the buildings, you will have $2m with which to buy an estate in the hamptons and everyone to the transaction will be happy because they got what they paid for. Oh i forgot. Be absolutely sure that you have a disclaimer drafted in small letters by an atty. providing full disclosure at the end of your prospectus. It has been my experience that no one will bother to read it-least of all the investors.
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jpinpb
Posts:1689
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| 07/18/2008 11:55 AM |
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This is this house zoned multi that Armstrong is selling 854 Reed.
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jpinpb
Posts:1689
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| 07/18/2008 11:56 AM |
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| Ooops- wrong thread. Sorry. |
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BigTrace
Posts:195
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| 07/18/2008 12:00 PM |
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| That's some great advice 613. Yes, I'm looking to retire, but I will dabble in RE some more, even through the tough times. My 2 buildings are valued at roughly 8M which I owe about 4m so they are "winners" right now. I may spin one for a NNN investment in another state seeing how Cali real estate tends to have the lowest cap rating in the country. Very interesting thought though. Thanks for the info. |
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613867
Posts:62
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| 07/18/2008 2:47 PM |
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Trace to my hypothetical recepie above add step 2a) Take your $14M appraisal to one of the big S&Ls that do com'l loans and increase your loan from 50% to 80% ($8m in my example). Because you are only asking for what appears to be a 57% loan ($8m divided by $14M) they will think its a great deal). Note: if you apply to a life insurance lender they will throw your appraisal into the garbage can-they are too smart. Adjust all of my hypothical #s to your actual #s. Offer the S&L and extra 1/2% interest so you don't have to sign personally on the loan and they will jump at the chance to do the deal and will keep part of the premium when they offload parts of the loan to some of their other loan participants. These S&Ls think they are pretty slick and will look forward with great anticipation to outfoxing their loan partners. Ain't business great. Oh i forgot. Put the extra tax free mortgage proceeds in tax free munis. And i neglected to mention in my hypothetical case above, your 50% interest will now be worth $3m so you will have 50% more equity in the property than you started with. If you don't believe me, read your own prospectus for all of the details. Good luck and God speed in your early retirement years.
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BigTrace
Posts:195
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| 07/18/2008 2:54 PM |
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| The only problem I see is getting that 14m appraisal. Even com'l RE has its top ends when valuing by income or P/SFT. I'd be getting around $448/ft. for both my buildings which doesn't come anywhere close to comping, but it's nice to dream about!! |
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jakob
Posts:549
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harpca
Posts:82
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| 07/19/2008 8:23 AM |
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| I've been following the market for 5 months now. And most of the REO prices are at the 1999-2001 price level depending on the area. The price drop seems normal to me. |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/19/2008 4:49 PM |
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56% off 2005 prices for a SFR.
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-9445AE84-1358_Buckwheat_Trl_Campo_CA_91906#29560
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/19/2008 4:58 PM |
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33% drop in Clairemont - 92117.
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-E729F040-5181_Barstow_St_San_Diego_CA_92117#29564 |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/19/2008 5:01 PM |
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53% off a SFR zoned MFR
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-B650825C-3432_De_Leone_Rd_San_Marcos_CA_92069 |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/19/2008 5:05 PM |
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60% off2005 prices for a SFR.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080050883-910_Aster_Escondido_Ca_92027 |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/19/2008 5:11 PM |
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72% off 2005 prices ( a condo )
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080050599-955_Postal_Way_50_Vista_Ca_92083 |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/19/2008 5:14 PM |
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52% off 2004 prices, for a 2 on 1.
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-DD0FA286-3034_Menlo_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92105 |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/19/2008 5:15 PM |
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56% off 2006 prices for a SFR.
http://sdlookup.com/MLS-080050506-4753_Calle_Estrella_Oceanside_Ca_92057 |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/22/2008 2:30 PM |
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http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080043959-608_Ocotillo_Dr_Vista_Ca_92083
60% off 2005 prices. |
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/22/2008 2:32 PM |
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57% off 2005 prices.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081038215-1438_Heidi_Cir_Vista_Ca_92084 |
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jakob
Posts:549
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ElPato
Posts:378
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| 07/27/2008 7:50 AM |
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http://sdlookup.com/MLS-082004304-810_Holtville_Ave_Jacumba_CA_91934
89% off 2005 prices for a SFR. A new record, I think. |
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